Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 34.495657 37.411925 40.621132 44.446501 48.925314 54.058871 60.471797
2025-07-06 29.502926 33.171738 37.477055 43.003429 50.068572 59.043484 71.755954
2025-07-13 27.898931 32.222730 37.552102 44.813332 54.822470 68.802496 91.301610
2025-07-20 25.768083 30.265498 35.984781 44.090497 55.862229 73.494236 104.935142
2025-07-27 25.135940 30.080313 36.594129 46.260980 61.222126 85.750123 136.324808
2025-08-03 24.202755 29.375830 36.378124 47.155501 64.734731 95.933712 170.050807
2025-08-10 23.190460 28.459629 35.746321 47.297295 66.986848 104.472744 206.791521
2025-08-17 21.931697 27.103462 34.353773 46.069495 66.635362 107.751059 232.488908
2025-08-24 20.809372 25.864773 33.032559 44.802773 65.990550 110.221620 258.644326
2025-08-31 20.571006 25.857906 33.523089 46.523580 71.173957 127.694134 370.748843
2025-09-07 19.686674 24.862632 32.437623 45.463774 70.732367 131.229934 427.948215
2025-09-14 18.909424 23.984148 31.475477 44.524592 70.390063 134.986143 500.108702
2025-09-21 17.869398 22.788765 30.130928 43.133218 69.643235 139.742478 633.149640
2025-09-28 16.895510 21.657548 28.839157 41.759989 68.840351 144.739225 842.668869
2025-10-05 16.651077 21.594221 29.228516 43.480830 75.408132 179.522263 3169.163054
2025-10-12 15.975698 20.828050 28.404162 42.793861 76.083341 193.630054 16640.522790
2025-10-19 15.847836 20.893350 28.956080 44.855477 84.410953 254.751207 NaN
2025-10-26 15.522125 20.624193 28.911943 45.704114 89.841650 315.512406 NaN
2025-11-02 15.111980 20.195113 28.553214 45.838580 93.271154 375.380272 NaN
2025-11-09 14.542583 19.481352 27.643998 44.673736 92.292721 396.577213 NaN
2025-11-16 14.007485 18.800930 26.756149 43.470797 90.932098 413.437805 NaN
2025-11-23 13.904815 18.818403 27.118977 45.104668 99.823239 610.125951 NaN
2025-11-30 13.456238 18.245711 26.369560 44.098664 98.935296 657.483932 NaN